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A sideways week for Bitcoin will not come as a surprise but BTC is still poised for a big move soon as it hobbles inside a tightening range.
Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) looked poised for a huge move up to $11,000. Instead, we saw a sidewards week of price action coupled with a small pullback. Has Bitcoin topped out? Is there too much selling pressure around $10K?
Let’s take a look at what’s happening with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, BTC.
Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com
More sellers than buyers
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TensorCharts
Bitcoin currently faces huge resistance between $9,500 and $10,005, according to the Binance order book shown on the Tensor Chart heat map above. At present, these sell walls, the bulk of which is represented by the yellow lines, show a total of 1,737 Bitcoin sells vs. 1,351 buys represented by the darker blue lines.
While this data is only on the Binance BTC/USDT chart, it gives us a good indication that at present there is not enough buying pressure to push BTC/USD above $10K. However it’s important to note that this data changes constantly, and it should only be relied on as long as it’s constantly referenced.
That being said, this does explain why the price of Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range between $9-$10K, and until more buyers step in, it’s obvious that this won’t change.
The weekly view is bright
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Over on the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently holding above the previous resistance. However, we are yet to see a full candle body close above this line. At which point, it’ll be a clear signal for the bears to switch bias, and while it currently looks good at the time of writing, if we close below $9,000 today, it’ll be a big setback for Bitcoin in the short term.
All eyes should be on the $9,000 level throughout next week, however, as this is a breakout from a descending channel. Each week, this support level goes down by around $100, so a prolonged failure to significantly break through the sell walls could see Bitcoin’s support slowly fall to $6,400 by the end of the year. That is, of course, until a new path emerges.
Daily MACD continues its bearish divergence
(This Week) BTC/USD daily MACD chart Source: TradingView
(Last Week) BTC/USD daily MACD chart Source: TradingView
The moving average divergence convergence (MACD) indicator is continuing its bearish divergence as it played out exactly as expected from last week’s analysis. The top MACD image is this week, and it’s starting to show signs that it has reached its peak divergence denoted by the blue MACD line beginning to curve in slightly.
The bottom MACD image shows last week’s positioning where it looked prime for the signal line to fall to around 400 and the MACD line to 200. This is exactly where it sits today, and what is needed for a bullish reversal is for both lines to converge around 350.
Should the MACD start to move in this direction then it’s a clear sign for bulls to step in, and I would expect the level of buyers to increase. However, should the MACD and signal lines continue to diverge in this manner then don’t expect fireworks anytime soon.
The upward path
BTC/USD Daily chart. Source: TradingView
Moving down to the daily timeframe, and another path for Bitcoin opens up. At present, we are hovering just above the support of around $9,100, which shows the midpoint resistance of this channel around $10,500 by the middle of next week.
The midpoint level also matches up with a 100% Fibonacci retracement. So should Bitcoin reach this level, it will most likely be met with a lot of selling pressure where a pullback to the support would be expected before seeing any substantial moves.
However, by the end of the week the support of this channel will be around the $10K level, and this — dare I say it — could be the last time you will be able to buy Bitcoin below $10,000 (yes, slap yourself now).
BTC/USD Daily chart. Source: TradingView
Finishing up on the hourly chart, and Bitcoin looks primed for a breakout to $9,400. This could close the week in a very bullish fashion. However, as I see it, even breaking down from this point to $9,000 would still leave bulls in control for the time being.
But breaking below $9K at this point would change everything, and as this is Bitcoin, be prepared for both eventualities as anything can, and usually does happen.
A close above $9,000 is bullish. From here, I will be looking at first breaking past the sell walls that start at $9,500 to $10,005. Should we get past this, then I expect major resistance at $10,500 before $11K-$12K can even start to be considered as possibilities.
Falling below $9,000 opens up the .618 Fib on the daily of $7,890 as a stark reality. This would also completely invalidate both channels I’m looking at this week. From this level it would be time to break out the $6,400 and $4,000 charts again. But with that said, my personal outlook is another sideways week for Bitcoin.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin price looks shaky after dropping below $9.3K support but still remains in a general uptrend since March even if another pullback occurs.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC), the top-ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a spike towards $10,500 before the halving took place on May 11. However, the price of Bitcoin has been having problems since the halving and is currently showing more signs of weakness.
On the other hand, altcoins have been starting to show signs of life with the BTC market dominance index sliding from 67% to 65% after the halving. Is the momentum now shifting towards altcoins from Bitcoin as the most anticipated event is behind us?
Crypto market daily performance. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin price is hovering inside a wide range as volatility drops
The price of Bitcoin is stuck inside a wide range as the next chart shows. The resistance area in the red zone between $9,800 and $10,100. At the same time, the price is finding support in the $8,250-8,500 area.
Additionally, BTC is moving above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MA), a bullish sign for the markets.
BTC USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
As the halving hype is slowly fading and the market goes back to its daily rhythm, the price of Bitcoin is also stabilizing. Is that unusual?
No, that’s normal. The halving was such a big event for Bitcoin that the hype on social media can create unsustainable price rallies and drops around the event.
BTC USD 2016 halving 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The previous halving shows a similar structure. The price of Bitcoin moved significantly in the run-up to the event, then a pre-halving crash occurred and a new range was established. Throughout the month, the price of Bitcoin consolidated inside a range.
Afterward, one more drop occurred and the market continued its upward momentum while holding the 200-MA as support until the peak in December 2017.
Bitcoin fails to break $10,000 and drops out of the rising wedge
BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
As the 4-hour chart is showing, the price of Bitcoin lost the rising wedge structure and broke down. In other words, another failure breaking through the $10,000 psychological barrier.
Alongside the drop, the price lost the support at $9,300. Recent moves have also confirmed this level as resistance as well. However, support was found at $8,900 as the chart is showing.
What’s next? Is the upwards momentum over? Or is the market simply returning back to normal with altcoins gaining more attention?
Total market cap holds above 200-day MA
Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The total market capitalization is still holding the 100-day and 200-day MAs as support, which is crucial for further upwards momentum.
However, the market cap itself is currently consolidating after a 120% surge in a matter of eight weeks. What’s the crucial level to hold? It’s the grey box at $220-225 billion.
If that level remains support, the total market cap will be in prime position for a surge toward $300+ billion, possibly even $360 billion. However, losing that key level can see a fast drop.
The significance of this level lies in the fact that it’s both the 100-day and 200-day MA acting as support confluent with a strong horizontal support level, which served as support throughout 2018.
Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Thus, not only will $220-225 billion level holding as support be a strong signal for further upwards momentum, but it would also make the March 12 crash one big shakeout for the entire cryptocurrency market.
Finally, the volume indicator is showing an increase in volume. This is another strong signal as this would suggest more accumulation.
Altcoin market capitalization still lagging behind
Total altcoin market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The total altcoin market capitalization chart shows a strong support/resistance flip of $70 billion, a level that’s also confluent with the 100-day and 200-day MAs as support. This is important as the market cap didn’t lose these MAs during the previous crypto bull market cycle.
However, as Bitcoin had significant support in 2018 at the $6,000 level, the total market capitalization had done the same with $220-225 billion. But now, the total market cap is again holding the $220-225 billion level as support while the price of Bitcoin is now 50% higher.
The altcoins by themselves are also lagging heavily as $113 billion is the 2018 support level comparable with the $6,000 level for Bitcoin.
Total altcoin market capitalization 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The chart above shows that altcoins have been lagging in general. Is that a bad thing? No, Bitcoin is a first mover and also peaked first in December 2017, after which the altcoins followed.
Right now, Bitcoin had its first run pre-halving towards $10,200. But the volume is now also increasing for altcoins. This means that demand and interest are increasing potentially setting the stage for altcoins to finally catch up.
The bullish scenario for Bitcoin
BTC USD bullish scenario 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The grey zone (with a potential wick towards $8,950) needs to hold. After that, a breakout of $9,300 is required to eventually push the price toward $9,600 or higher.
If such a move occurs, a retest of the range high between $9,800-10,100 is likely as the next step. As this level has been tested many times already, the resistance level should be weaker as a rule.
In that regard, if this scenario plays out, a breakout to the upside could see the price of Bitcoin potentially run toward $11,000 or $11,500.
The bearish scenario for Bitcoin
BTC USD bearish scenario 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
However, once the price of Bitcoin isn’t able to break through the $9,300 barrier, retests of the lows should be expected. Levels to test would be $8,800 (already tested once already), but, more importantly, $8,200-8,500 support of the current range.
Nevertheless, this would still not be catastrophic for Bitcoin in general. The structure would still remain in an upward trajectory since March 12. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows since then, which is by definition a strong upward trend. Consolidation is, in fact, healthy for the market if new highs are to be established.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin’s recovery to $10,000 is currently hindered by resistance at the 20-MA and with a holiday weekend coming up traders brace for volatility.
Since dropping below the ascending channel trendline to $8,815 on May 21, Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered 4.78%. BTC/USD continues to meet resistance at the 20-day moving average, obstructing traders’ desire to push the price above $9,300.
Crypto market weekly price chart. Source: Coin360
In the United States, this weekend includes the Memorial Day holiday, meaning traditional markets will be closed on Monday and the crypto market will be left to its own devices.
Typically trading volume thins on weekends so investors who find time to step away from the family BBQ will be watching to see whether or not larger players exploit the market to push the price of the top-ranked asset on CoinMarketCap in a new direction.
BTC USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
In the 4-hour chart, we can see Bitcoin’s price marching along the gradient of the ascending channel trendline by painting higher lows. The price continues to meet resistance at the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator but traders will also notice that there is a bull cross on the MACD and the indicator’s histogram has printed a green bar above 0.
The RSI is also below the neutral zone (50), currently angled downward at 45. In situations such as these, purchasing volume is the key signal to watch, and at the time of writing, both buy and sell volume have screeched to a halt. Volume typically precedes price so keeping a close eye on increases in buy or sell volume on the shorter timeframes will be the tell.
The neutral Doji candle also shows buyers and sellers in equal contention on the direction of the price and based on the current setup, Bitcoin could either drop to the lower Bollinger Band arm at $8,865 where there are likely to be buyers.
Alternatively, a surge above the 20-MA would allow the price to run to $9,600 by exploiting the VPVR volume gap created by the swift fall from $9,634 to $8,820 on May 21.
BTC USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView
On May 22, Cointelegraph contributor filbfilb warned that Bitcoin price only has one week to make a decisive move that will define whether Bitcoin makes a decisive move that favors bulls or bears. filbfilb posted the above chart and explained that:
The monthly chart of Bitcoin clearly demonstrates that Bitcoin has a long-term challenge to overcome, which is reclaiming the $10K handle. But more specifically, it must record a $9,300 monthly close that has eluded Bitcoin for the last 10 months, which sets the tone for the current price action.
Bitcoin daily price chart. Source: Coin360
As Bitcoin mounted a slow recovery on Friday, many altcoins took advantage of the sideways trading by pulling off strong double-digit rallies.
According to CoinMarketCap, the overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $257.9 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 66.1%.
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